Unfortunately, being a Realtor, a lot of our initial contacts involve trying to show why we’re the agents to work with. This can really seem like bragging, but, in reality, good agents have to separate themselves from the huge number of inexperienced agents out there (and certainly from the stereotypical types!).

I think what tells the most about us is the past couple years. We called the real-estate bust very early and told our sellers & investors (and anyone who would listen) to sell . This was 2005 when people were lining up to buy. Because of my investment-writing background, the newspaper interviewed me and the best quote I gave them was: “This is musical chairs. Have fun playing, but don’t be the last person standing and understand it’s all artificial.” I also wrote all sorts of market opinions in emails, letters and on the Website telling people what I figured would occur (and most local builders, Realtors and fellow business owners said I was crazy – I’m not kidding!).

Anyway, we did very well during those days, but we concentrated on investors who knew how to “play”. They did very well.

But it’s what we did after the bust that gives me pride in our agents and company:

For two years we told buyers to hold off unless they were “trading.” If a person is selling to buy another property, then no problem (as long as they COULD sell). If a person sells high and buys high, it’s no big deal. If a person sells low and buys low, no big problem there either. But we worried about those who bought high and needed to sell low. Or, even worse, we worried about our buyers looking for vacation homes – a huge part of our business! We knew they could do better if they waited and we told them so.

That was tough! After all, we are sales people – even if we’re not pushy. But we did it. We wrote market commentaries that said we thought prices needed to come down (and I still think most asking prices are too high!)

We had several difficult months in 2007, but we hobbled along and didn’t compromise our ethics or complain – you have to take the bad with the good! We also prepared well for this during the boom, so we had a great cushion (many others went crazy and were not at all in a situation like us). Plus, we still did fairly well compared to most.

Then came 2008! Prices finally started coming down significantly toward spring. We contacted many of our waiting buyers and told them it was the time to cautiously begin looking. Most listings were still priced way too high, but we hunted for the “gems” (as we call them) and we found them. Our clients gobbled up most of the best homes sold so far in 2008 – we can see that easily enough looking at MLS. And I mean the great deals on new homes, waterfront and starter homes – the best of each category!

Our clients said again and again: “you’re the only Realtors I ever talked to who told us to wait to buy.” They said things like that to us constantly and it made us feel great!

We're very thankful to our clients who stuck with us and remembered the advice we gave them - many have also become friends. I can honestly say: What comes around goes around …

I know this is getting long, but it’s the writer in me – I can’t help it! I wanted to continue for just a little longer and talk about the boom – it was fascinating and people still don’t quite understand it.

For example, virtually all current foreclosures (I’d say well over 90%) are vacant homes that were purchased by “investors.” The media makes it appear like most are poor, innocent people who were taken advantage of who are losing their homes (and some are – and this has always been the case). But in reality, the bast majority of this is the result of greed and ignorance of entering an investment bubble ready to burst. I know this sounds rough, but it is true – we lived it! We begged people we knew and came in contact with to sell and many listened – the happy ones. Many others didn’t. You wouldn’t believe how many people acted so patronizing to me – like I only wanted an easy listing to sell (sure, I wanted the listings, but I KNEW what was going on and explained it with numbers and detail).

I may have called it a bit too early, but I think people should be relatively conservative with their life savings! How I knew it was coming fairly quickly was when I charted MLS figures and saw that the ratio between new listings and listings going under contract was getting worse each month. This was before the “experts” on TV were saying much about the bubble bursting. They began to talk, but, like always, experts with no real data ….

So, we cried out for our sellers and investor clients (many who became friends – we worked together a LOT over those few years) to SELL!!

The boom was obviously a great time for virtually any agent or seller. It was a great time for us for sure! But we concentrated more and more on sellers as prices were going through the roof. And being an investment writer for as long as I was, I kept looking at the numbers and couldn’t justify the price appreciation with no significant wage increases. It seemed pretty simple, but so many ignored the obvious

I’ll digress for a moment: What I mention above is the very essence of a bubble. And it’s no different from what is occurring now with commodities. When the vast majority of “experts” on TV are saying a market can’t go down, start watching carefully and get ready to sell! All these “experts have to do is say two magic word: India & China and everyone nods their heads! Look at the numbers. Oil has tripled in the time that demand has gone up about 10%. Bubble. Gold, skyrocketing from a sky is falling mentality. Bubble. Corn, etc., which has been at low levels for … ever. Bubble. Of curse, experts will tell you how this is different, just like they ALWAYS do with every bubble! Now don’t get me wrong, fortunes are made in bubbles. It’s just that most “regular” people are the ones who get in late, stay in too long and lose a lot of money! You have to be careful and understand what I call Bubble Talk.

Okay, back to real estate.

When we knew the bubble was growing, we sent mailers to thousands of people who owned area lot – many for several decades. These lots experienced some boom and bust conditions before, but never like this. It also made us happy to help a lot of these people – many who were seniors on fixed incomes and thinking they had some worthless lot!

We were pushing paper (contracts) and seriously didn’t even have to sell a home – we’d sell 15 to 25 lots per month! It was incredible. I felt pretty good, but knew it was very artificial. Our buyer clients would argue with me when I told them what I thought! (I always told them so I could sleep at night, but also told them they could make money flipping – just not “holding” too long!). But many would say things like: “Highlands County is recession proof” and “Demographics are just too strong for Florida” and (my personal favorite): “God isn’t making more land.” Well, as we all saw, God didn’t have to.

To Be continued ...

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